The service sector during a pandemic

As my last posting informed I am in Las Vegas attending a one-day seminar. This city is fed by tourism (driven by gambling and entertainment) and if you are employed in Las Vegas there is a good chance your job would be classed as a service sector job, as most jobs in the United States would, as my own does.

Being in Las Vegas I was reminded of DeFoe’s Journal of a Plague Year ¹ when I began to think about what a pandemic would look like in this city.

…for though it be something wonderful to tell, that any should have hearts so hardened in the midst of such a calamity as to rob and steal, yet certain it is that all sorts of villainies, and even levities and debaucheries, were then practised in the town as openly as ever–I will not say quite as frequently, because the numbers of people were many ways lessened.

Will Las Vegas, like DeFoe’s London, continue to practice its “debauchers”, though on a lesser scale?

Again, the public showed that they would bear their share in these things; the very Court, which was then gay and luxurious, put on a face of just concern for the public danger. All the plays and interludes which, after the manner of the French Court, had been set up, and began to increase among us, were forbid to act; the gaming-tables, public dancing-rooms, and music-houses, which multiplied and began to debauch the manners of the people, were shut up and suppressed; and the jack-puddings, merry-andrews, puppet-shows, rope-dancers, and such-like doings, which had bewitched the poor common people, shut up their shops, finding indeed no trade; for the minds of the people were agitated with other things, and a kind of sadness and horror at these things sat upon the countenances even of the common people. Death was before their eyes, and everybody began to think of their graves, not of mirth and diversions.

There is little doubt we will see places of entertainment either closed for lack of customers or closed by local edict during active local infections, but will that stop the “entertainments”, or as DeFoe labels them, “debaucheries”, all together?

It may be tempting to dismiss my linking London’s outbreak of plague in the mid 1600’s and a severe influenza pandemic (should one occur) sometime within the next several years. I would argue that even if the illness and death is of a lesser percentage than that experienced by London in 1665 the fear and societal upheaval will be far greater today.

People in Medieval Europe were used to diseases sweeping through populations, and given standards of medical care coupled with a population that did not enjoy robust health in general, diseases had fatal outcomes far more frequently. A disease in the 1600’s claiming 10% of its victims would hardly seem worthy of inspiring general panic whereas today, as evidenced by SARS, it would set an entire country, if not the entire world, on a health crisis footing.

A “health crisis footing” would have ripple effects throughout whatever geographic area it happens to be, whether localized or the world as a whole. And as stated above: there is little arguing the service sector would be the economic sector most affected. How will so many financially cope if a severe pandemic strikes if their place of employment shutters its doors until the pandemic passes? Many service sector jobs offer no benefits whatsoever, and if they offer any at all they are generally minimal.

The company I work for will serve as an example: We are allowed to carry 40 hours of “paid time off” from one year into the next. As I cannot use vacation time nearly as fast as I earn it I will forfeit the earned hours in excess of 40 back to the company at year’s end. My anticipated forfeiture will likely be in the range of 120+ hours.

In other words, I will have a week’s worth of paid time off at the beginning of 2009 to use in the event a pandemic happens then. Official estimates are that a community would be affected for roughly 12 weeks. What would I do for income after week one, my 40 hours of paid time off “on the books” at the start of the year? What would anyone do who had such minimal accumulated paid time off? Although I would be far luckier financially should a pandemic happen in the fall, most service sector employees will be caught short no matter the season.

So, unless Las Vegas continues its businesses of “debauchery”, to use DeFoe’s term, it will be a city without a meaningful weekly payroll feeding into the local economy. Las Vegas will lose the tourist dollars and much of its local payroll at nearly the same time. Will unions pay benefits during a severe pandemic? What about someone such as myself who does not belong to a union and has none available to join?

No one knows what the future holds but some things are logically foreseeable. Unfortunately, foreseeable doesn’t always, or even usually, mean things will be done to lessen impact. Hurricane Ike and the financial upheaval of late are the two most recent examples of situations with foreseeable ramifications ignored. Ignored that is, until many were standing around stunned and looking for the federal government to come along and “fix it”. The solution of last resort so to speak. Unfortunately, with a severe pandemic there will be no federal government delivering that “solution of last resort”, no matter how many find themselves stunned and in desperate need of a solution.

In fact, given hurricane Ike and the recent financial interventions the United States government will be even less capable of delivering a solution than they were before, and they were in no form or fashion capable of delivering before, just even less so now and into the near future.

SZ