We are now three months into our 2009 H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic if I count back to its emergence in April. Those whose job it is to watch influenza are keeping a cautious eye on the virus, especially with the opening of schools looming for many in the Northern hemisphere. In my area the schools will open in less than a month, though for many, that day won’t be until the second week in September.
My area has not seen much from the pandemic thus far. That is good and bad. The good part is, we haven’t seen too much sickness. The bad news is that may have set us up to suffer all the more when the traditional flu season strikes. We have very little acquired immunity in the local communities.
In my own way I am attempting to peer into the “soon to be” and trying to guess what it may look like pandemic wise. Attempting to read the tealeaves would not be complete without considering the possibility that a vaccine will not be available to the general public and 2009 H1N1 may become “immune” [resistant] to Tamiflu. Both of which are more likely than not.
No one knows precisely what our nascent pandemic has in store for us. At best we are guessing and assuming when we choose to either worry – or not. I do know that neither my husband nor I are listed in the initial vaccination group, neither is my son, his wife, or their two year old daughter. We do not have qualifying health conditions, we’re not pregnant, we are all outside of the age guidelines, none of us is pregnant [only one of us possibly so], and none of us is in the medical profession.
I have previously mentioned in this blog [and elsewhere in Flublogia] that my son is a patrol officer for a small city. It has long been my hope that as a First Responder he would receive a vaccine quite early. The vaccination guidelines as they currently exist do not include First Responders in those prioritized to receive the vaccine first.
During a full-scale local epidemic of novel influenza anyone dealing with the public has a high risk of infection. Should my son become infected he will bring that infection home to his family. Does that worry me? Of course it does. But I have prepared as best an “average citizen” can prepare to handle influenza within the household.
I have my over the counter flu medicines stocked: Aspirin, Tylenol, anti-diarrheal, cough suppressant, decongestant, etc. I’ve got thermometers, a few facemasks and latex gloves, gel hand sanitizer, as well as a stock of surface disinfectants and good old-fashioned bleach.
Since none of have preexisting health conditions that increase the odds of having a severe [or fatal] infection I’m reasonably confident that at worst we will just be miserable for a span of time. Palliative care should be all that will be needed.
But, what happens if all five of us are in need of that palliative care at the same time, or roughly the same time? What if one or more of us suffers a severe illness even though odds are currently against such, but not everyone who has landed in hospital or morgue has had a preexisting health condition or risk factor – no, a percentage have been young and healthy, or healthy if not so young.
It is that percentage that causes my concern. The unknown. The unknowable. The random roll of the dice that can be influenza, especially the novel sort.
The other thing I’ve done to prepare my family to face an influenza pandemic is make sure each of us were vaccinated against bacterial pneumonia, the leading complication of influenza.
Everything I did to prepare I did prior to the need to do so. If we wait until we know we have to prepare for something it is generally too late to prepare. Can you imagine what it will be like if the entire nation [whatever nation you reside in] attempted to purchase non-aspirin pain reliever, anti-diarrheal, cough suppressant, decongestants and thermometers at the exact same time? The demand would far outstrip the supply. Many would find themselves having to do without.
I chose to do a few simple things to help protect my family, though I admit that what I’ve done was prepare to face a pandemic of H5N1, a virus far more potentially devastating than the current 2009 H1N1. But even a mild pandemic, where we might see ~40% of our community infected, could be tough going.
Using my patrol officer son as an example: What would working a shift be like if 20% of his squad was out sick? 30%? 40%? Having been a patrol officer myself I can handily attest to the deleterious effects on the performance of a squad with the absence of even one officer, let alone two – or three – or four – or more.
Look at any occupation where the workers are under 60 – assume 40% of those workers ill within the span of 8 to 12 weeks, most clustered around weeks 4-6. Will things be “normal”? Probably not. How could they be? So, even a mild pandemic will cause us a few issues.
It will benefit us, individually, and us as a community, to lessen as many effects as we can. A mild pandemic is easily prepared for: a few over the counter meds, a few weeks of household staples and foodstuffs. By stocking them now, prior to needing them, we guarantee that we have them in hand and we have eliminated a need to go to a public place where infected people might also be.
And so, for all that I know, for all that I assume, and for all that may reasonably be possible, I’ve prepared. Have you?
